An 83% surge in new COVID-19 cases during the past week in Africa, driven by the Delta and the Omicron variants, is causing fewer deaths than previous surges—but more waves could be building as updated forecasts warn that the continent may not reach 70% vaccine coverage until August 2024, a new World Health Organization (WHO) pandemic assessment finds.
Africa recorded more than 196 000 new cases for the week ending on 12 December, up from around 107 000 in the previous week, bringing the total cumulative number of recorded cases during the pandemic to 8.9 million. The number of new COVID-19 cases is currently doubling every five days, the shortest reported this year. While the speed of the spread is fast, deaths remain low and even dropped by 19% last week compared with the previous week.
There were a little over 3000 deaths reported during the first three weeks of the current pandemic wave, which is Africa’s fourth. About half as many cases were reported in the same time frame during the third wave which was fuelled by the Delta variant.
This upsurge in new cases coupled with low hospitalizations is particularly marked in South Africa which has experienced a 66% rise in new cases during the past seven days compared with the previous seven days. While hospitalizations have increased by 67% in the past seven days, the bed occupancy rate for Intensive Care Units remains low at 7.5%, with 14% of the hospitalized patients receiving supplemental oxygen. Though the deaths also remain low, this data should be interpreted with caution as the pattern may change in the coming weeks.
“We are cautiously optimistic that deaths and severe illness will remain low in the current wave, but slow vaccine rollout in Africa means both will be much higher than they should be,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa. “We’ve known for quite some time now that new variants like Beta, Delta or Omicron could regularly emerge to spark new outbreaks globally, but vaccine-deprived regions like Africa will be especially vulnerable.”
