The Omicron variant is reaching more countries in Africa and weekly COVID-19 cases in the continent surged by 93%. However, there are signs of hope as preliminary data indicates that hospitalizations across South Africa remain low.
Africa recorded more than 107 000 cases in the week ending on 5 December, up from around 55 000. Five countries accounted for 86% of the cases reported over the past week and all the sub-regions in the continent – up from one the previous week – reported increases in new cases. Southern Africa recorded the highest increase with a 140% hike mainly driven by an uptick in South Africa.
Research is being intensified to determine whether Omicron is fuelling the surge in cases seen in Africa. Emerging data from South Africa indicates that Omicron may cause less severe illness. Data which looked at hospitalizations across South Africa between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3 % – which is very low compared with the same period when the country was facing the peak linked to the Delta variant in July. Data from the same two-week period from one of the health districts most impacted by Omicron found that out of more than 1200 admissions, 98 were receiving supplemental oxygen and only four were on ventilation. This is very preliminary data with a small sample size and most of the people admitted to the health facilities were under the age of 40. As the clinical profile of patients changes, the impact of Omicron may change.
Africa currently accounts for 46% of the nearly 1000 Omicron cases reported by 57 countries across different regions of the world. So far, 10 African countries have reported cases. Despite the widespread global presence of Omicron, more than 70 countries have imposed travel bans that are mainly targeting southern African countries – some of which have yet to report any Omicron case.
“With Omicron now present in nearly 60 countries globally, travel bans that mainly target African countries are hard to justify,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa. “Through the diligent surveillance efforts of African scientists, the new variant of concern was first detected on this continent, but it’s unclear if transmission was taking place silently in other regions. We call for science-based public health measures to counter the spread of COVID-19. The travel restrictions come at the height of the end-of-year tourist season, ravaging Africa’s economies, with a knock-on impact that is potentially devastating to the health of Africans.”
To ramp up the response to the Omicron variant and the rise in cases, WHO is supporting countries to improve genomic surveillance to track the virus and detect other potential variants of concern. In South Africa, a regional genomic sequencing laboratory is supporting 14 southern Africa countries and has significantly scaled up sequencing. In the first half of 2021, southern African countries sequenced only 5500 samples. They are now sequencing as many every month.
An 83% surge in new COVID-19 cases during the past week in Africa, driven by the Delta and the Omicron variants, is causing fewer deaths than previous surges—but more waves could be building as updated forecasts warn that the continent may not reach 70% vaccine coverage until August 2024, a new World Health Organization (WHO) pandemic assessment finds.
Africa recorded more than 196 000 new cases for the week ending on 12 December, up from around 107 000 in the previous week, bringing the total cumulative number of recorded cases during the pandemic to 8.9 million. The number of new COVID-19 cases is currently doubling every five days, the shortest reported this year. While the speed of the spread is fast, deaths remain low and even dropped by 19% last week compared with the previous week.
There were a little over 3000 deaths reported during the first three weeks of the current pandemic wave, which is Africa’s fourth. About half as many cases were reported in the same time frame during the third wave which was fuelled by the Delta variant.
This upsurge in new cases coupled with low hospitalizations is particularly marked in South Africa which has experienced a 66% rise in new cases during the past seven days compared with the previous seven days. While hospitalizations have increased by 67% in the past seven days, the bed occupancy rate for Intensive Care Units remains low at 7.5%, with 14% of the hospitalized patients receiving supplemental oxygen. Though the deaths also remain low, this data should be interpreted with caution as the pattern may change in the coming weeks.
“We are cautiously optimistic that deaths and severe illness will remain low in the current wave, but slow vaccine rollout in Africa means both will be much higher than they should be,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa. “We’ve known for quite some time now that new variants like Beta, Delta or Omicron could regularly emerge to spark new outbreaks globally, but vaccine-deprived regions like Africa will be especially vulnerable.”
